【記者鄒志中報導】  「從此刻開始,將只是美國優先!美國優先!」川普揚言對大陸商品課徵45%的關稅? 中美恐掀貿易大戰? 川普日前宣稱北京蓄意壓低人民幣,暗助出口。中美2016年商品勞務貿易往來金額近6600億美元,嚴重向中國傾斜,第45位美國總統川普2017120日宣誓就職,由於川普民調偏低、財金政策矛盾、對外大肆挑釁,加上交接準備不足,使股匯市不確定他就職後要如何落實政見,經濟學家預估,川普若對中國產品課徵45%的關稅,中國的成長將減少約13個百分點,意味失業率會在最不恰當的時機激增,迫使北京當局進行另一輪難以負擔的刺激政策。川普也主張課徵邊境稅、退出跨太平洋夥伴協定(TPP),並廢除前任政府推行的其他政策。

就美國而言,對中國的出口僅占總出口的8%,遠低於對加拿大的20%和墨西哥的13%,但卻模糊了一大痛點:波音有13%的營收來自中國,蘋果的銷售則有五分之一仰賴中國市場。川普正式就任美國總統,也為美國經濟與全球互動展開新頁,在經濟政策、經濟思維、貿易投資與國際合作等層面可能催化劇烈的轉變與衝擊。

 

首先在經濟政策層面,金融海嘯之後已開發國家的主流政策一直是「貨幣寬鬆」與「財政撙節」,完全靠各國央行不得不唱獨角戲,從零利率、量化寬鬆(QE)、負利率到各種選擇性寬鬆,各種非傳統、實驗性政策相繼出籠,但政策效果卻不斷遞減。川普旗幟鮮明地主張減稅及增加公共支出,加上共和黨主導國會,且聯準會開始緊縮,因此未來美國經濟政策的主軸勢必將轉向擴張性財政政策,並可能擴散到其他已開發國家;通膨將取代通縮,貨幣政策則由鬆轉緊。

 

其次,川普團隊有83年的企業經驗,許多閣員都是美國大企業執行長、財務長,而歐巴馬團隊的企業年資卻只有五年。這些美國政府「局外人」普遍痛恨官僚體制,重視實際問題,將為美國政府帶來新能量,點燃美國企業界的野獸精神。不僅在人事上以「實幹家」取代「學院派」,在減稅政策也特厚美國企業界及有錢人;包容性的成長思維將被掃地出門,貧富差距可能益發擴大,資源集中且錯置的風險也因而提高。 

第三,川普「反全球化」將使全球商業活動從自由貿易轉向重商主義。貿易團隊的成員包括白宮國家貿易委員會召集人納瓦洛,商務部長羅斯、貿易代表萊特海澤,清一色都是保護主義健將。就任後可能取消、重談多項自由貿易協定,認定中國是「匯率操縱者」,對中國、墨西哥產品實施高關稅,對於將工廠移出美國的廠商實施懲罰性稅制,改採懲罰進口、獎勵出口的「邊境稅」以鼓勵「美國製造」,甚至不惜測試世界貿易組織相關法規的底線。 

最後,川普的民粹主義,也將使全球從合作走向對抗。川普一旦認定中國操縱匯率並實施高關稅,勢必引發中美貿易戰,中國將對境內的美國企業查稅、展開反托辣斯調查,減少政府對美採購,及拋售美國公債作為報復。貿易戰還將衝擊供應鏈,不僅中國、亞洲受損,美國受傷可能更為嚴重。 

再加上川普要求盟國多負擔軍費,以及外交上可能採取的躁動、盲動作為,現有的國際合作架構都可能備受衝擊。 

川普面臨的對立難題,包括美國國內人民對立、美國府會對立、及國際社會間的對立。川普目前的民調支持度只有40%,是1930年末以來、第一位就職時支持率不到50%的美國總統,將使他在與國會協商減稅及擴張支出等政策時,籌碼不足,美國府會可能陷入同室操戈的僵局。

美國府會當前最重大政策對立是稅制改革。國會共和黨團提出「邊境稅」案,對進口品課稅、對出口免稅,以增加稅收,作為降低企業稅率的財政支柱,但川普說這「太複雜」,「任何時間聽到邊境稅,我都不喜歡」。 

在匯率政策上,川普雖主張削減貿易逆差,但他主張的擴張財政又可能使聯準會(Fed)加速緊縮貨幣政策,結果將使美元更強,逆差更大。 

外交方面,川普親俄國輕北約,拉英國打歐盟,令歐洲盟邦高度不安。他挑釁「一個中國」政策,也引發北京強力反彈。 

彭博資訊指出,自1970年代以來,在美國新總統就職的一年後,金價平均上漲近15%,相較下,標普500指數平均跌0.9%。川普政策與英國脫歐的不確定性,已使金價今年來漲約4%,但這回金價展望還面臨一個風險:美元升值。 

川普競選時揚言,他上任第一天就要退出TPPTPP目前尚未經過美國國會核准,川普稱TPP「對美國是潛在的災難」。TPP為歐巴馬政府「重返亞洲」政策的基石,以制衡迅速崛起的中國。部分TPP支持者憂心,若斷然退出這個耗費多年才談成的協議,可能強化中國在亞太地區的經濟勢力、導致美國的影響力降低。 

川普總統就職演說全文(英文+中譯對照):

美國總統川普於台灣時間2017121日凌晨1時宣誓就職,成為美國第45位總統。川普總統就職演說的全文如下: 

Chief Justice Roberts, President Carter, President Clinton, President Bush, President Obama, fellow Americans and people of the world, thank you. 

羅伯茲首席大法官、卡特總統、柯林頓總統、布希總統、歐巴馬總統、美國同胞和世界人民,謝謝。

 

We, the citizens of America, are now joined in a great national effort to rebuild our country and restore its promise for all of our people. 

我們,美國人民,現在加入重建我國,恢復對所有人承諾的一項偉大全國努力。

 

Together, we will determine the course of America and the world for many, many years to come. We will face challenges, we will confront hardships, but we will get the job done. 

團結一致,我們將決定美國和世界未來多年的路線。我們將面臨挑戰,我們將面對困難,但是我們將完成任務。

 

Every four years, we gather on these steps to carry out the orderly and peaceful transfer of power, and we are grateful to President Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama for their gracious aid throughout this transition. They have been magnificent. Thank you. 

每隔四年,我們聚集在此進行井然有序、平和的政權轉移,我們感謝歐巴馬總統和第一夫人米雪兒在過度期間的親切協助。他們太棒了,謝謝。

 

Today's ceremony, however, has very special meaning because today, we are not merely transferring power from one administration to another or from one party to another, but we are transferring power from Washington, D.C. and giving it back to you, the people. 

但是,今天的儀式有特別的意義,因為今天我們不僅只是政府把權力交給下一任政府,或是一個政黨交給另一政黨,而是從華府把權力交回給你們,就是人民。 

For too long, a small group in our nation's capital has reaped the rewards of government while the people have borne the cost. Washington flourished, but the people did not share in its wealth. Politicians prospered, but the jobs left and the factories closed. The establishment protected itself, but not the citizens of our country. Their victories have not been your victories. Their triumphs have not been your triumphs. And while they celebrated in our nation's capital, there was little to celebrate for struggling families all across our land. 

有太久的時間,一小群人在國家首都獲得政府獎勵,人民卻承受代價。華府欣欣向榮,但是人民卻未共享財富。政客平步青雲,但是工作離開,工廠關閉。既有體制自我保護,卻不保護我國的人民。他們的勝利不是你們的勝利。他們在國家首都慶祝時,全國各地陷入困境的家庭,沒什麼好慶祝。

 

That all changes starting right here and right now because this moment is your moment, it belongs to you. 

所有這些情況,從現在開始改變,因為這個時刻是你們的時刻,屬於你們。

 

It belongs to everyone gathered here today and everyone watching all across America. This is your day. This is your celebration. And this, the United States of America,is your country. 

這個時刻屬於今天在此聚集的每個人,以及美國各地的所有觀眾。這是你們的日子,這是你們的慶祝,美利堅合眾國是你們的國家。

 

What truly matters is not which party controls our government, but whether our government is controlled by the people. 

真正重要的不是哪個政黨控制政府,而是我們政府是否由人民控制。 

January 20th, 2017 will be remembered as the day the people became the rulers of this nation again. The forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer. 

2017120日,將被紀念為人民再度成為這個國家統治者的一天。我國被遺忘的男女,將不再被遺忘。 

Everyone is listening to you now. You came by the tens of millions to become part of a historic movement, the likes of which the world has never seen before. 

每個人都在聽你們,幾百萬人來此以成為歷史性運動的一部分,這個運動將是世界從未見過的。

 

At the center of this movement is a crucial conviction, that a nation exists to serve its citizens.Americans want great schools for their children, safe neighborhoods for their families, and good jobs for themselves. These are just and reasonable demands of righteous people and a righteous public. 

這個運動的中心,是一項關鍵確信,那就是一個國家存在是為了服務人民。美國人想要子女上好學校,家庭住在安全社區,自己有好工作。這些是人民理所當然的合理要求。

 

But for too many of our citizens, a different reality exists: mothers and children trapped in poverty in our inner cities; rusted out factories scattered like tombstones across the landscape of our nation; an education system flush with cash, but which leaves our young and beautiful students deprived of all knowledge; and the crime and the gangs and the drugs that have stolen too many lives and robbed our country of so much unrealized potential. 

但是對我們太多人而言,卻存在一個不同現實:母親和孩子被困在城市貧民區的貧窮,荒廢的工廠像墓碑一樣散布在全國各地,教育系統現金多多,卻讓我們年輕可愛的學生學不到知識,犯罪、幫派和毒品奪走太多人的生命,也搶走我國未能發揮的潛力。

 

This American carnage stops right here and stops right now. 

這場美國大屠殺現在就停止。 

We are one nation and their pain is our pain.Their dreams are our dreams. And their success will be our success. We share one heart, one home, and one glorious destiny. The oath of office I take today is an oath of allegiance to all Americans. 

我們是同一國,他們的痛苦是我們的痛苦,他們的夢想是的夢想,他們的成功將是我們的成功。我們有同一個心,同一個家,同一個光榮的命運。我今天宣誓的就職誓詞,是效忠所有美國人的誓詞。

 

For many decades, we've enriched foreign industry at the expense of American industry; subsidized the armies of other countries, while allowing for the very sad depletion of our military. We've defended other nations' borders while refusing to defend our own. 

數十年來,我們犧牲美國工業,讓外國工業致富,補助他國的軍隊,卻讓我國軍隊令人難過的耗減,我們捍衛別國的邊界,卻拒絕捍衛我們自己的邊界。 

And spent trillions and trillions of dollars overseas while America's infrastructure has fallen into disrepair and decay. We've made other countries rich, while the wealth, strength and confidence of our country has dissipated over the horizon. 

在海外不斷花巨款,卻讓美國的基礎設施衰退凋零。我們幫助其他國家變富有,但是美國的財富、力量和信心卻逐漸消散。

 

One by one, the factories shuttered and left our shores, with not even a thought about the millions and millions of American workers that were left behind. The wealth of our middle class has been ripped from their homes and then redistributed all across the world. 

工廠一個接一個關,離開美國,根本未考慮成千上萬的美國工人失業。中產階級的財富從他們家中被奪走,然後重新在全世界分配。

 

But that is the past. And now, we are looking only to the future. 

但這是過去。現在,我們只瞻望未來。 

We assembled here today are issuing a new decree to be heard in every city, in every foreign capital, and in every hall of power 

我們今天聚集在此發出一條新法令,要讓每個都市、每個外國首都和每個權力殿堂都聽見。

 

From this day forward, a new vision will govern our land. From this day forward, it's going to be only America first, America first. 

從今天開始,新的願景將會治理我們的土地。從此刻開始,將只是美國優先,美國優先。

 

Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs will be made to benefit American workers and American families. We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies and destroying our jobs. 

在貿易、稅制、移民、外交事務的每項決定,將以惠及美國勞工和美國家庭為目的。我們必須保護我們的邊界,以免其他國家破壞,製造我們產品、竊取我們的公司、以及消滅我們的工作。

 

Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength. I will fight for you with every breath in my body and I will never ever let you down. America will start winning again, winning like never before. We will bring back our jobs. We will bring back our borders. We will bring back our wealth. And we will bring back our dreams. 

保護將會帶來偉大的繁榮和力量。我將會竭力為你們奮戰,我永遠不會讓你們失望。美國將會開始再度勝利,且是以前從未曾有過的勝利。我們將會拿回我們的工作,我們將會恢復我們的邊界,我們將會拿回我們的財富,我們將找回我們的夢想。 

We will build new roads and highways and bridges and airports and tunnels and railways all across our wonderful nation. We will get our people off of welfare and back to work, rebuilding our country with American hands and American labor. 

我們將會建設新的道路、高速公路、橋樑、機場、隧道,以及遍及我們這個美好國家的鐵路。我們要我們的人民脫離福利,重新工作,用美國人的雙手和勞力,重建我們的國家。

 

We will follow two simple rules; buy American and hire American.We will seek friendship and goodwill with the nations of the world, but we do so with the understanding that it is the right of all nations to put their own interests first. We do not seek to impose our way of life on anyone,but rather to let it shine as an example. We will shine for everyone to follow. 

我們將會遵循兩個簡單的法則:購買美國貨和僱用美國人。我們將會尋求世界各國的友誼和善意,但我們此舉,是基於理解把本身利益置於優先,是所有國家的權利。我們不尋求把我們的生活方式加諸於每個人身上,而是要讓此作為典範發揚光大,以讓所有人效法。

 

We will reinforce old alliances and form new ones and unite the civilized world against radical Islamic terrorism, which we will eradicate from the face of the Earth. At the bedrock of our politics will be a total allegiance to the United States of America, and through our loyalty to our country, we will rediscover our loyalty to each other. When you open your heart to patriotism, there is no room for prejudice. 

我們將加強原有的聯盟,並組成新的聯盟,同時團結文明世界以對抗激進伊斯蘭恐怖主義,我們將會把他們從地球完全消滅。我們政治的基本原則將是完全效忠美國,以及透過我們對國家的忠誠,重新發現我們對彼此的忠誠。在你們開啟愛國之心後,偏見將無地自容。

 

The bible tells us how good and pleasant it is when God's people live together in unity. We must speak our minds openly, debate our disagreements honestly,but always pursue solidarity. When America is united, America is totally unstoppable. 

聖經告訴我們,當上帝的子民和睦同居,是何等的善、何等的美。我們必須坦誠發言,誠實地辯論歧見,但永遠追求團結,當美國團結一致,無人能擋。 

There should be no fear. We are protected and we will always be protected.We will be protected by the great men and women of our military and law enforcement. And most importantly, we will be protected by God. 

我們應當無所懼怕。我們受到保護,而且我們一直將受到保護。我們得到我們國家偉大的男女軍人及執法界的保護,更重要的是,我們受到上帝的保護。 

Finally, we must think big and dream even bigger. In America, we understand that a nation is only living as long as it is striving. We will no longer accept politicians who are all talk and no action, constantly complaining, but never doing anything about it. The time for empty talk is over. Now arrives the hour of action. 

最後,我們應思考做大事,有更大的夢想。在美國,我們瞭解一個國家只有生氣蓬勃的成長,才能生存。我們不再接受只有空談而不做事的政治人物,他們不斷地抱怨,卻從未見到他們拿出行動來。空談的時代已經過去了,現在是拿出行動的時候了。 

 

Do not allow anyone to tell you that it cannot be done. No challenge can match the heart and fight and spirit of America. We will not fail. Our country will thrive and prosper again. 

別讓任何人告訴那是辦不到的事。對有熱情,肯奮戰與有鬥志的美國人來說,沒有任何挑戰是太困難的。我們不會失敗,我們國家將再度蓬勃繁榮。 

We stand at the birth of a new millennium, ready to unlock the mysteries of space, to free the earth from the miseries of disease, and to harness the energies, industries and technologies of tomorrow. A new national pride will stir ourselves, lift our sights and heal our divisions. 

我們站在一個千禧世代興起之初,準備解開太空神祕的時代,解放地球受到疾病之苦的時代,並且將運用未來能源、工業與技術的時代。新的國家榮譽將激勵我們,提高我們的眼界,治癒我們的分裂

 

It's time to remember that old wisdom our soldiers will never forget, that whether we are black or brown or white,we all bleed the same red blood of patriots.We all enjoy the same glorious freedoms and we all salute the same great American flag. 

我們應該記取我們士兵永誌不忘的座右銘,那就是不論我們是黑色、是棕色或白色皮膚,我們所流的都是相同的愛國熱血,我們享有的是相同的崇高自由,我們致敬的是相同的偉大美國國旗。

 

And whether a child is born in the urban sprawl of Detroit or the wind-swept plains of Nebraska, they look up at the same night sky, they will their heart with the same dreams, and they are infused with the breath of life by the same almighty Creator. 

不論兒童是在底特律郊區或內布拉斯加平原出生,他們仰望的是相同的夜空,他們內心所有的是相同的夢想,他們被同一個偉大造物主的生命氣息充滿。 

So to all Americans in every city near and far, small and large, from mountain to mountain, from ocean to ocean, hear these words. You will never be ignored again. 

對不論遠近、不論大小的每個城市的美國人,從此山到彼山,從此海到彼海,我要對你們說:你們不會再被漠視。

 

Your voice, your hopes, and your dreams will define our American destiny. And your courage and goodness and love will forever guide us along the way. 

你們聲音,你們的希望,你們的夢想,將決定美國的命運。你們的勇氣、善良和愛心,將永遠引導我們。

 

Together, we will make America strong again. We will make America wealthy again. We will make America proud again. We will make America safe again.And yes, together we will make America great again. Thank you. God bless you. And God bless America. 

團結一致,我們將讓美國再度強大,我們將讓美國再度富裕,我們將讓美國再度驕傲,我們將讓美國再度安全。是的,團結一致,我們會讓美國再度偉大。謝謝,天佑你們,天佑美國。

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